December 29th, 2008 Posted in General, Uncategorized | No Comments »
Guest blogger Andrew Kennis writes:
This year’s hot stove period has produced little substance in terms of the Mets’ biggest signing. The Mets would have been better off opting for a closer who has more substance than style. Indeed, there has been a significant amount of criticism of K-Rod, and with good reason:
Without being too critical of an effective pitcher, what Francisco Rodriguez has done with those opportunities isn’t special. He has blown six saves for a 90.3 percent conversion rate this season, a figure that compares unfavorably with peers such as Mariano Rivera (33/34, 97.1 percent) and Joakim Soria (35/38, 92.1 percent). That rate is also unimpressive when compared to other closers with high save totals; among the 11 50-save campaigns in baseball history, Rodriguez’s 2008 season features the seventh-highest total of blown saves and the seventh-highest save percentage, the eighth-highest ERA and RA, the ninth-highest Reliever Expected Wins Added total, the 10th-best strikeout-to-walk ratio, and the worst Value Over Replacement Player.
The fact is, Francisco Rodriguez’s performance this season has not been special for any closer, and it’s been below average for 50-save closers. Even among his peers in 2008, Rodriguez’s run prevention has been ordinary; Rivera, Soria, and Joe Nathan have lower ERAs, RAs, and higher VORP scores. He’s chasing the record not because he’s having a season like Eckersley’s ‘90 or Gagne’s ‘03, one that raises the bar for short relievers, but because his teammates have given him more chances to save a game than all but one pitcher in MLB history has had. If the Angels had Nathan, Soria, or Rivera—pitchers who have a higher save percentage than Rodriguez has posted—they would perhaps have already set the record for saves in a season, and the Angels would have more wins. Quite frankly, earlier versions of Rodriguez would have been more productive as well; this is one of the lesser seasons in his six-year career.
That snippet and critique of K-Rod was taken from a well-written article by Baseball Prospectus writer, Joe Sheehan. Take note of the fact that that critique was written *before* K-Rod’s lackluster playoff performance … something that did not escape recent NY Post coverage, which noted additional concerns:
Some scouts have questioned the Mets’ investment, considering Rodriguez last year blew seven saves, never pitched more than one inning and flamed out in the postseason. The biggest concern, though, was a trademark 96-mph fastball that dipped into the 92-93 mph range.
Omar Minaya would have been able to save a lot of money by going after the closer with the second highest save percentage in the league, Joakim Soria, who incidentally was mentioned in trade possibilities by a Newsday columnist. Soria, who hails from Coahuila, Mexico and has earned the nickname the ‘Mexicutioner,’ was described as having pitched a “near-perfect” season through the All Star Break last year. This impressed the Royals so much that he garnered a new, re-negotiated contract reportedly worth $8.75 million over three years (which actually happened far before the All Star break, after only a quarter of the season had passed last year). This figure still would have made Soria a bargain-basement signing had the Mets landed him. Further, since the Royals sent Soria and no one else to the All Star game last year and landed in a next-to-last-place cellar finish in their (less than impressive) division, they seemingly would have been quite open to a trade for some Met prospects (which the Mets have plenty of, as duly noted) and some possible cash (also something the Mets were obviously not lacking of, in light of the signing itself).
Why Minaya chose to go after style and flair (K-Rod) over actual substance (Soria or another accopmlished, if not famous closer), is a bit puzzling. Hopefully, however, the Mets won’t have to suffer as a result as indeed, few doubt that K-Rod is a quality pitcher. Further, Rodriguez does seem like quite a good fit for New York given his penchant for flair and attention coupled with his intimidating approach on the mound. In light of the concerns just noted, however, the question of whether K-Rod was actually the *best* pitcher the Mets could have bought - dollar-for-dollar - has a painfully clear answer: Minaya did not pull off that shrewd of a move and certainly the tough fans and press in New York will hold K-Rod accountable. Further, it will be interesting to see how the future of a high-profile closer like K-Rod’s matches up (or not) with Soria’s, the still largely unheralded ‘Mexicutioner.’
-Andrew Kennis is a freelance journalist, a PhD student in Political Communication and an adjunct professor. He is a life-long Mets fan who resides in Logan Square, Chicago.